Question 13 of 20 · Education and economics

Jobs, shortages, wages and the productivity paradox

Does a shortage mean my income is safe?

1 min read · Well measured today

Aging populations and unmet needs can raise demand even as automation changes how much labor each patient takes. Shortage forecasts rest on assumptions, and a shortage has never been a promise about pay.

What we can measure today

Contested
AAMC projects a shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians by 2036.
What this does not prove: Modeled in 2023. The high and low ends differ more than sixfold. It estimates need at current patterns of use, not what happens to pay.
Association of American Medical Colleges, March 21, 2024
The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036
Scope: United States, 2021 to 2036.
How it was done: Scenario modeling by GlobalData Plc for the AAMC, conducted in 2023. The range runs from the 25th to the 75th percentile of supply adequacy across scenarios.
Limits: Modeled before today's AI capabilities, and the report calls the effect of new technologies on supply and demand complex and unclear. The AAMC is also an interested party in workforce policy.
Checked against the original on November 6, 2026.
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Established now
BLS May 2025 median physician and surgeon pay is $275,930, against $50,980 for all occupations.
What this does not prove: A snapshot of people already practicing, after a long training period.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Last modified August 27, 2026
Occupational Outlook Handbook: Physicians and Surgeons
Scope: United States.
How it was done: Federal employment and wage statistics. Pay is the May 2025 median, half earn more and half earn less. Growth is a 2025 to 2035 projection.
Limits: A median across all ages, regions and employers, before tax. A projection, not a promise. It tells you nothing about one person's income. The outlook text on this page names aging and chronic illness as demand drivers, and does not mention AI.
Checked against the original on November 6, 2026.
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Established now
Adjusted for inflation in practice costs, Medicare physician payment declined 33% from 2001 to 2026.
What this does not prove: From an advocacy group, and one payer's rates against practice costs. This pressure on price predates AI.
American Medical Association, Updated January 2026
Medicare Physician Updates Compared to Inflation in Practice Costs (2001-2026)
Scope: U.S. Medicare physician payment updates, 2001 to 2026.
How it was done: Federal payment updates compared with the Medicare Economic Index, a measure of practice costs.
Limits: From a physician advocacy organization that campaigns on this issue. It measures one payer's rates against practice costs. It is not a measure of what physicians take home.
Checked against the original on November 6, 2026.
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What may change

Supply, demand, productivity, payer prices, wages and geographic distribution, all at once.

What may endure

The need to allocate limited resources to health.

The hard questions

Could efficient AI create more total care but fewer workers per unit?
Could lower prices expand access for patients, and still reduce income for clinicians?

Evidence worth watching

AAMC scenarios · Workforce surveys · Payer data

Sources last checked November 6, 2026

Next review by February 6, 2027.

What changed, and how we decide

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